More on voucher caps and MPS

In my previous post I described a hypothetical calculation of what might happen to the participating private schools and to MPS schools under the voucher cap. Using estimates of capacity and actual enrollments from last year underlines both the incentive to report large capacities and the potential impact on MPS students of a last-minute exodus of students.

If the enrollment caps had been applied to last year's enrollments, schools having to cut enrollment had reported capacities averaging 33% above their actual enrollments while those with no cuts had reported capacities averaging more than three times their actual enrollments. Clearly it is the schools' interest to report capacities as large as possible.

It is unclear if the DPI will try to monitor and challenge the reported capacities. Doing so could be a real challenge. Often schools could expand their capacity by hiring additional teachers or renting additional space. At least they could argue this, knowing that the caps will mean they will never be put to the test.

Using last year's figures, 1,170 seats would be unused. If DPI made a last-minute decision to reallocate these to schools with waiting lists, a number of MPS schools might suddenly find they could not afford all the teachers they had budgeted for--potentially a cut of about fifty teachers.