Tuesday, March 14, 2006

Is there intelligent life in the Democratic Party?

The Seventh state senate district covers Milwaukee's East Side and Bayview, and the south shore suburbs of Cudahy, South Milwaukee and Oak Creek. Politically these areas differ substantially. One way to view the political variety is to examine the three assembly districts that fit into it:
  1. The 19th covers the East Side and part of Bayview. It is probably the most predictably liberal district in Milwaukee and is represented by Democrat Jon Richards. In the 2004 election, the Republicans did not bother to field a candidate.
  2. The 20th covers the rest of Bayview and Cudahy. It is generally considered blue-collar, pro-union Democrat, conservative on life-style issues. It is represented by Democrat Christine Sinicki (a former school board colleague of mine). In the 2004 election, she had a Republican opponent but won easily.
  3. The 21st consists mostly of Oak Creek and South Milwaukee. It is represented by Republican Mark Honadel. In the 2004 election, there was no Democratic candidate.
Currently the senate district is represented by Jeff Plale, generally considered conservative for a Democrat, particularly on life-style issues such as abortion and gun control. Although I would probably disagree with him on more issues than I would with most Democrats, I thought he showed courage as one of only four Milwaukee Democrats who broke with their party to support Governor Doyle's compromise to increase the number of school choice seats. (Sinicki was another.)

Politically his positions make the 7th a safe Senate seat for the Democrats. His relative conservatism fits well with the Democratic voters of Bayview and Cudahy, and appeals to wavering Republican as well. For liberal East Siders, he is clearly preferable to anyone likely to win the Republican Primary.

As some Republican moderates also discovered, his real vulnerability is in the primary. Republicans have recognized this. A couple of years ago they launched a recall effort after he voted to uphold one of Governor Doyle's vetoes. Apparently they hoped that a liberal would enter the race against him, splitting the Democratic vote and handing the district to the Republicans. This effort collapsed when the liberals refused to cooperate and instead raised money for Plale.

This year, however, the liberals seem to have decided to play the Republicans' game. They are running a candidate against Plale whose campaign appeals to the Democratic (East Side) base: "The 7th District is traditionally Democratic. Its people deserve a traditional Democrat in the State Senate--a Democrat who will vote like one."

Republican strategists must be delighted. If the effort is successful, it could put the 7th senate seat back into play. Second, even if they don't win the 7th, a purge of Plale could signal to voters who prefer Democrats on environmental or economic issues but disagree on lifestyle issues that they are not welcome in the Democratic Party. This will make it harder for Democrats to pick up the seats they will need to regain control of the legislature.

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