Graduation Rates in MPS

A Journal Sentinel article puts the MPS high school graduation rate at 45%, one of the lowest in the U.S. Graduation rates for urban school districts are devilishly difficult to calculate. These claims are based on calculations by Jay Green and his associates at the Manhattan Institute. The Green methodology compares the number of high school graduates with an average of the eighth, ninth, and tenth grade students five, four, and three years earlier, respectively, adjusted for the growth or shrinkage in overall high school population.

This approach probably underestimates the graduation rate in MPS, but it is unclear how much. A significant number of students repeat ninth grade; essentially they are counted in the base as two students, although Green reduces this effect by averaging three grades. If, as I suspect, there is a significant number of students who start high school in MPS but graduate from other schools this would also reduce the calculated graduation rate.

The implication that 55% of the students are out of school with no degree may overstate the situation, but the true number is still too large.

Calculations that depend on following individual students also suffer from problems, but ones that may push the error in the opposite direction. Some number of students stop attending and eventually removed from the school count. But unless they tell MPS, it may be hard to determine whether they dropped out or moved to another school, perhaps in another country. Students who are recorded as transferring to other schools are removed from the count, but in some cases their moving likely reflects that they were doing poorly in MPS; thus the move itself may represent the last step before dropping out.

Finally none of these studies address the issue of the quality of education the graduates received. Did it prepare them for college or the job market?

Update 4/30: a reader points out a hanging sentence in the original post, which was removed.