Is Milwaukee creating or losing wealth--or both?

Recently, the Public Policy Forum issued a report comparing the income of people moving into counties with those leaving and those staying. In particular, the average income of people moving out of Milwaukee County was higher than that of either those moving in or those staying.

While not particularly surprising, it is not clear what one should make of these results, or their policy implications. One interpretation is that Milwaukee County is on the way down, as wealthier people continue to abandon it. This seems to be the view of the people the Journal Sentinel found to comment on the study. Why, then, are we seeing the rapid rise in property values, particularly in the poorest sections of Milwaukee?

Another interpretation is that, despite all its trials, Milwaukee continues to play the classic role of the American city over the last two centuries. People with little come to the city because that is where the opportunity is. As they become successful in the city, they move elsewhere to spend their money.

The question about education, then, is which model is it promoting, one of opportunity or one of loss.