Property values and schools

Recently I advanced the thesis that changes in Milwaukee education are behind much of the recent surge in property values. In essence, by giving families far more choices--within MPS, with charter schools, and with the choice program--homes in Milwaukee become increasingly valuable. Even if many schools remain unsatisfactory, in this hypothesis, the property value effect could still take place since the families most concerned about education will be precisely those most likely to take advantage of the increased options. From the family viewpoint, the question is not how MPS is doing as a whole but how the school their children attend is doing. By being able to pick the school, the family is likely to be far more satisfied than if the school were imposed on them.

I would be the first to admit the thesis is untested. There are a variety of other possible hypotheses that might explain part or all of the increase in property values, such as:

• That it is simply part of a national movement back to the cities.
• That having been down so long, these neighborhoods could go nowhere but up.
• That other local effects explain the results, such as welfare reform.
• That while it appears the poorest districts are taking the lead in the rise, the jumps mainly represent gentrification on the fringes of these districts.
  

It has become increasingly clear that problems with the Milwaukee education were a major factor behind the lag in Milwaukee property values in the 1980s and 1990s, as middle class parents left the city to find better schools. Thus it seems quite plausible that an increase in values would also reflect the schools. However, a number of studies could help better define the role of the schools:

• Comparisons of property value trends in Milwaukee with those in cities that are similar except that control of schools remains centralized.
• Micro analysis of the property values. How did homes attractive to families perform compared to others?
• A history of property values over more years and broken down into smaller geographical areas.
• Comparison of trends in the MPS census data and geographical enrollment data with those in property values. For example, what was the relationship between the number of children and property values, as well as the type of schools they attended and whether the schools were nearby?